11:00
Moderated by

Egil Tjåland, Associate Professor at NTNU
Halfdan Carstens, Editor in Chief at GeoPublishing

Panel members:
Per Øyvind Seljebotn, Jonny Hesthammer, Eirik Wærness, Jarand Rystad

The world is hungry for energy, more so than ever, and as a result “peak oil demand” may be postponed well into the 2030s. As it now also seems to take longer time than anticipated (and so highly desired by many) to move from fossil fuels to renewable energy, the old Statoil slogan – «Oil is here to stay” – may still be valid.

Amongst others, the pace of replacing fossil fuels with renewables will depend on how fast it is possible to build new, profitable large-scale solar, wind and carbon capture and storage infrastructure, which will again put strain on other natural resources, subsidies on already stretched domestic budgets and industry cost and margins.

As pointed out by IEA in their recent report “The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions”, the energy sector is emerging as a major force in mineral markets. Also, will blue hydrogen – implying capture and storage in huge volumes – play a substantial role in the energy mix? And what about nuclear energy? According to IEA’s 2019 report “Nuclear Power in Clean Energy System”, nuclear power is the second-largest source of low-carbon electricity today and makes up 10% of global electricity supply.

Moreover, are we at all in a position to predict the energy mix in 2050, given that we have an equation with an almost endless number of unknowns?

IEA predicts that in 2040 as much as 60 million bopd will and can be sustainable while meeting Paris Agreement criteria. But, the corresponding decarbonisation of these barrels, their “License to Opeate” in that scenario, is lagging both in scale and time. Which gear shift must the oil and gas industry take, moreover how must the Norwegian Oil and Gas industry adapt, and what are the implications for Norwegian oil and gas exploration in that global and domestic context?

We have currently a political debate in Norway concerning abandonment of oil and gas exploration, following the advice from Faith Birol at IEA in their 2021 report "Net Zero by 2050. A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector". The current "energy crisis" (as experienced by households both in Norway and abroad) seems to prove that Norway will play an important role in sourcing the European market with oil and gas, the latter may even be included within EU Green Deal and the soon to be included EU taxonomy.

Again, what are the implications on how we look upon NCS prospectivity, and how we go about future licensing rounds and exploration strategies?

Furthermore, is it really true that some 25 billion barrels is still to be discovered on the NCS? Is it more, less – by when?